Maharashtra State Elections 2024 – Total Instability Which STV And Online Voting Can Remedy

With the Maharashtra elections scheduled for 20 November 2024 and results to be declared on 23 November, the political landscape in the state has been shaped by dramatic shifts since the last election in 2019. After a series of alliances, betrayals, and unexpected power shifts, voters are left wondering if they can truly trust their political parties. What was once a state known for stable political alliances has since become a battleground for changing loyalties, leading to a sense of disenchantment among the electorate. Once again online voting is not allowed in the Maharashtra election 2024.

The 2019 Maharashtra Assembly Elections: A Contest of Alliances

BJP-Shiv Sena vs. Congress-NCP

 
The Maharashtra Assembly elections in October 2019, we saw a contest between the two primary alliances: the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, and the Congress-NCP alliance. The results were initially expected to cover the way for the BJP to retain power with the Shiv Sena as a partner. BJP won 105 seats, falling short of a majority, while its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 56 seats. On the other hand, the NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, got 54 seats, while the Congress bagged 44 seats, with 61.4% voter turnout. While the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it could not form the government outright. What followed next was an unexpected political drama that redefined Maharashtra’s political dynamics.
 

Shiv Sena’s Split from BJP

 
The political drama in Maharashtra began with the fallout between the BJP and Shiv Sena after the 2019 Assembly elections. Shiv Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray, broke its three-decade-long alliance with the BJP after a disagreement over a 50-50 power-sharing deal, including the rotation of the chief ministership. This fallout was orchestrated by Uddhav Thackeray’s desire to have a Shiv Sena’s Chief Minister, which led to the creation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a coalition of Shiv Sena, Congress, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), brokered by Sharad Pawar.

The formation of the MVA was a historic moment, marking the first time Shiv Sena allied with Congress, a party it had long opposed on ideological grounds. Uddhav Thackeray, driven by his ego more than his  ambition, took on the role of Chief Minister, with Pawar’s political support ensuring the survival of this unusual coalition. The MVA remained united by a common agenda to keep the BJP out of power, but it also symbolized the fracturing of long-standing political loyalties.
 

Rebellion Within Shiv Sena: Eknath Shinde’s Rise

 
In 2022, a major split occurred within Shiv Sena when Eknath Shinde, a senior leader, led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray. Shinde’s camp accused Thackeray of compromising the party’s core Hindutva ideology by aligning with so called ‘secular’ parties like the Congress. This internal seizure of power within Shiv Sena was seen as part of a broader strategy by the BJP to weaken the MVA and regain control in Maharashtra.

Shinde’s defection to the BJP marked a significant turning point. In July 2022, Shinde was sworn in as the Chief Minister, with BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy, returning the BJP to power in the state. In a further blow to the Thackeray faction, the Election Commission of India later awarded the Shiv Sena name and its iconic “Bow and Arrow” symbol to Shinde, cementing his position within the party and further sidelining Uddhav Thackeray. The fact that BJP agreed to take the deputy chief minister post caught everybody by surprise. Some feel it was BJP’s masterstroke while others still wonder the real reason behind it.
 

BJP’s Strategy to Weaken Opposition

 
Another significant incident came in 2023 when Ajit Pawar, the nephew of NCP Sharad Pawar, led a rebellion within the party and joined the BJP(NDA) government. This split, like Shinde’s defection, was seen as part of the BJP’s larger strategy to weaken opposition forces ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. By aligning with Ajit Pawar and creating a division within the NCP, the BJP aimed to gain more votes and solidify its electoral prospects in Maharashtra, a crucial battleground state.
 

The Consequences of Party Betrayals

 
The political realignments and shifting loyalties in Maharashtra since 2019 have left many voters feeling disillusioned. The series of splits, defections, and party alliances seem to prioritize the hunger for power over ideological commitment or voter interests. The voters, who had initially chosen their representatives, watched as parties and leaders switched alliances for political gain.Voters have watched political parties switch ideologies in pursuit of power, creating a sense of disenchantment among the electorate.
 

Can the Single Transferable Vote (STV) System Restore Stability?

A Possible Solution to Unstable Alliances

 
Current First Past The Post (FPTP) method of voting leads to strange political alliances which are generally not stable. Parties are worried about division of votes due to multiple candidates and multiple parties and hence are forced to form alliances. Voters are forced to vote for candidates of the alliance partners as their first choice party is not even represented at a particular seat. Later when the alliances change after the election, the voters feel cheated. Single Transferable Vote (STV), could provide a solution in a state like Maharashtra, where political alignment is unpredictable and multi-party alliances predominate, STV might provide voters more freedom to voice their choices. STV guarantees that the most favored candidates, even those from opposing parties, are elected by enabling voters to rank candidates according to their preferences. By enabling voters to rank candidates, STV could ensure that the winner represents a broader consensus, potentially reducing the likelihood of post-election power struggles and shifting alliances. In Maharashtra’s fractured political context, the introduction of such a system could empower voters and reduce the sense of betrayal many felt after the 2019 elections.
 

How Technology Could Revolutionize Elections in Maharashtra

 
If Maharashtra voter turnout was only 61.4% in the 2019 elections. Introduction of online voting option can enable voters to vote from anywhere in a matter of seconds and can substantially increase the voter turnout from around 60% to around 90%.Is it fair to have the government elected with only two third of the eligible voters voting? Higher voter turnout along with STV would lead to clearer mandate and this instability in politics would have been avoided. A clearer mandate from a larger turnout might have prevented power struggles and shifting coalitions after the election. 

To increase voter turnout in 2024, online voting presents a viable option. Government of India approved eVoting platforms like Right2Vote, which has been conducting elections for various organizations since the last 9 years, have already shown the potential to boost participation by allowing voters to cast their ballots from anywhere. Implementing online voting could help ensure that a larger percentage of Maharashtra’s electorate is heard, leading to more decisive and stable election outcomes.

STV is the preferred method of election in the President of India election and in Rajya Sabha elections, however FPTP method of voting is used for Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections as considering the large number of voters, STV vote counting in offline voting will take days. Right2Vote’s online voting platform provides automated STV counting technology where counting is completed automatically in minutes without any human intervention. 

It’s time India accepts technology and makes its democracy much more efficient.
 

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